With the migration from dirty to clean energy well underway, it’s time to consider whether we have entered the Renewable Revolution.
If so, given their leveragable advantage and resource capacity, I believe investment odds favor a few major renewable integrators that serve utility companies.
Other players in fossil fuels and clean energy will be defeated, acquired, or left to play zero-sum games within modified business models.
Lest anyone has forgotten, human-contributed global warming “got us here”. This reality and its destructive consequences have been demonstrated by a wide array of longitudinal studies conducted by thousands of scientists working almost everywhere. Moreover, people around the world embrace the Paris Climate Agreement. Support comes from public and private sector leaders through organizations such as the World Economic Forum. It also comes from everyday citizens as documented, for example, in the US by the research of Yale and George Mason University.
Public Opinion Has Shifted
The effect is that the migration from dirty to clean energy is well underway and accelerating. We know this from the conversion of coal-fired power plants to natural gas, from the rising sales of hybrid and all-electric vehicles, from the presence of more wind and solar farms, from the race to come up with new and improved batteries, and from invention in such areas as tidal turbines and hydrogen fuel cells. And, many believe that the trend to reduce carbon emissions will continue. We see it in the projections of government organizations such as the International Energy Agency, and in other forecasts including by Fred Lambert at Electrek who predicts that the lines for new BEV and ICE sales will cross in 20 years or so.
When I step back from all this, I see a transformation that resembles “The Industrial Revolution” and “The Information Revolution”. If, indeed, we are witnessing the makings of “The Renewable Revolution”, it will lead to major dislocations but equally significant investment opportunities.