Stockholm (NordSIP) – Following two weeks of biodiversity negotiations in Colombia, COP season continues with the start on Monday 11 November 2024 of the international climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is expected to focus largely on international climate finance. With many climate metrics alarmingly off-track and a global political and corporate shift away from climate commitments, COP29 will be an opportunity to inject renewed energy and optimism in international low-carbon transition efforts.
Money talks
The financial flows from wealthy nations towards those developing countries most affected by climate change will be high on the COP29 agenda. Although developed nations jointly contribute some $100 billion each year towards mitigation and adaptation efforts in the global South, these sums are now considered insufficient. In order to bridge this growing climate finance gap, contributions that were set around 15 years ago will need to be updated in the form a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). Background work on the NCQG began in 2021, but it is scheduled to be put in place by next year.
Based on the experience of previous COP negotiations, this is expected to be a controversial topic. Developed nations have appeared reluctant to commit the capital expected, and there have been arguments over the status and responsibilities of China, India, and other wealthier, high-emitting nations in the developing world. The separate loss and damage fund will also feature heavily in these climate finance negotiations while it remains only partially funded. The latter fund is a vehicle for wealthy economies that have historically benefited from fossil-fuelled growth to compensate poorer regions of the globe that have contributed little to the causes of climate change but suffer the most from its effects.
Strong action needed to get back on track
Baku will also be the occasion to revisit some of the fundamental obligations and commitments originating from the Paris Climate Agreement. The global stocktake of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDQs) that began at last year’s COP28 in the United Arab Emirates will continue, with the onus on individual nations to submit their revised targets by February 2025 for final approval at COP30 that same year. A major shift will be required, based on the latest data from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). This shows that under current policies the world is on a 3.1-degree warming pathway, which might be slightly reduced to roughly 2.7-degrees if stated 2030 targets are achieved. This highlights the scale of the challenge for COP delegates, with many hoping for stronger and more explicit wording in the final joint statement regarding the phasing out of fossil fuels.
International carbon markets and emissions trading will also be under discussion in Baku, with the voluntary collaboration framework laid out in Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement still considered unsatisfactory. Delegates will be tasked with coming up with revised rules to increase transparency and accountability to help eliminate greenwashing and other abuses of the existing carbon markets. COP29 will also host a series of thematic days dedicated to health, science, technology, and innovation, food and agriculture and other topics directly related to the climate crisis.
A trio of petrostate hosts and backroom oil deals
The chosen host nation for COP29 remains controversial. Along with the UAE and Brazil, Azerbaijan is one of three petrostates hosting COP28, 29, and 30. Newly published research by Oil Change International reveals that these three host nations will increase their combined fossil fuel production by a third as early as 2035. Despite some efforts to increase transparency, in recent years the COP events have seen a sharp increase in fossil fuel industry lobbyist attendance. On Friday 8 November, NGO Global Witness published the results of its undercover investigation in Azerbaijan, in which it was offered access to the state oil company SOCAR in exchange for potential sponsorship of COP29. Global Witness’ fictitious oil investment firm EC Capital had held a meeting with COP29 CEO Elnur Soltanov, who apparently facilitated the referral in a clear conflict of interest.
Representatives from non-governmental organisations and the media have also complained about a repressive environment implemented by the Azerbaijani government. Finally, the recent election of a climate denier to the presidency of the United States is likely to cast a shadow on proceedings. This is compounded by the planned absence of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Macron, and current US President Biden. No senior representation is expected from China, Japan, or Australia either.
NordSIP will provide further updates as COP29 develops over the coming two weeks.
