Stockholm (NordSIP) – This week’s annual meeting of the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, is the opportunity for the global political and economic elites to meet, discuss world affairs and voice their concerns for the future.
The 20th Edition of the Global Risk Report 2025 leaves no doubt as to the fact that state-based armed conflict has climbed the ranks to become the most widely shared concern among the survey participants. “State-based armed conflict, now ranked as the #1 current risk by 23% of respondents (Figure B), was overlooked as a leading two-year risk two years ago. In a world that has seen an increasing number of armed conflicts over the last decade, national security considerations are starting to dominate government agendas,” the WEF argued in this year’s report.
Whereas in last year’s edition, extreme weather events were dominant, the inability of international institutions the proliferation of armed conflicts in 2025 appears to have brought home the devastating realities of war. “The risk of further destabilizing consequences following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as in the Middle East and in Sudan are likely to be amplifying respondents’ concerns beyond 2025 as well,” the 2025 WEF report explains.
The publication of the organisation’s yearly updated Global Risk Report is based on the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) of roughly 900 experts from academia, business, government, the international community and civil society. This is supplemented by further input from a far broader WEF Executive Opinion Survey (EOS). The Risk Report sets the agenda and informs the discussions held among global leaders during the Davos meeting.
Changing Short and Long Term Risks
The report also breaks down risk perceptions over short and long-term time horizons. Looking back to last year’s report, the main change appears to be in the presence of concerns about inflation and economic growth then, which have now disappeared from the top 10 short-term risks. Instead, we now find inequality, geoeconomic confrontation and erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms. Among the top 5 short-term concerns, state-based armed conflict also became more prominent. “In the two-year outlook, State-based armed conflict has moved up from #5 to #3 since our GRPS 2023-24 (Figure C),” the report adds.
Over the longer 10-year horizon, “Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse” concerns climbed over “Critical change to Earth systems” to 2nd place, leaving the rest of the top 5 concerns otherwise unchanged.
Flying Under the Radar
Considering what investors might be missing, the WEF report points the finger at technology, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI). “In a year that has seen considerable experimentation by companies and individuals in making the best use of AI tools, concerns about Adverse outcomes of AI technologies are low in the risk ranking on a two year outlook,” the report warns. This concern remains unchanged at 6th place in the top 10 risks over the long-term.
“However, complacency around the risks of such technologies should be avoided given the fast-paced nature of change in the field of AI and its increasing ubiquity. Indeed, Adverse outcomes of AI technologies is one of the risks that climbs the most in the 10-year risk ranking compared to the two-year risk ranking,” the report continues.
The report also points to the Biotech sector as another source of risk that respondents that has been rising in prominence but has not yet made the top 10. According to the report “while global risks stemming from the field of biotech are not top of mind today, they will become more so within a decade. There are three sets of risks in biotech that need to be watched closely over the coming years: Rising accessibility of bioweapons; negative health impacts as the flipside of efforts to cure or prevent health issues; and the potential for those with access to leading-edge biotech to cross ethical boundaries.”