Stockholm (NordSIP) – This week, the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), published its annual State of the Global Climate report. The study confirmed that 2024 was likely the first calendar year to have recorded temperatures in excess of 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, with a global mean near-surface temperature of 1.55 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average. This is the warmest year in the 175-year observational record.
The WMO report brings together all the facts about climate change to put these temperature rises in context. It paints a bleak picture of our world, racing towards climate catastrophe and increasingly destructive weather patterns. “While a single year above 1.5°C of warming does not indicate that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach, it is a wake-up call that we are increasing the risks to our lives, economies and to the planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The report is based on scientific contributions from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, WMO Regional Climate Centres, UN partners and dozens of experts. It includes sidebars on monitoring global temperature for the Paris Agreement and understanding the temperature anomalies in 2023 and 2024. It includes supplements on climate services and on extreme weather.
The report was published ahead of World Meteorological Day on 23 March, World Water Day on 22 March and World Glaciers Day on 21 March.
Understanding Rising Temperatures
The report distinguishes between annual and long-term estimates of global warming. “Global temperature does not increase smoothly from one year to the next. In addition to the long-term warming principally driven by greenhouse gas emissions, there is considerable year-to-year natural climate variability caused by phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, volcanic activity and changes in ocean circulation,” the WMO explains.
“The IPCC defines climate change as a change in the state of the climate that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. The exceedance of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels referred to in the Paris Agreement should therefore be similarly understood as an exceedance over an extended period,” the WMO add.
Given these fact, the report notes that long-term global warming is currently estimated to be between 1.34°C and 1.41°C compared to the 1850-1900 baseline based on a range of methods – although it noted the uncertainty ranges in global temperature statistics.
However, this long-term view should now distract us from observing our clear trajectory over the short term. “By this definition, 1.5 °C of warming would only be confirmed once the observed temperature has reached that level over a 20-year period, 10 years after the year of exceedance. Thus, there would be a 10-year delay in recognizing and reacting to exceedance of the long-term temperature goal,” the WMO warns.
The record global temperatures seen in 2023 and broken in 2024 were mainly due to the ongoing rise in greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with a shift from a cooling La Niña to warming El Niño event. Several other factors may have contributed to the unexpectedly unusual temperature jumps, including changes in the solar cycle, a massive volcanic eruption and a decrease in cooling aerosols, according to the report.
Racing Towards a Tipping Point?
As is to be expected, rising temperatures are not isolated events. The report notes a number of other alarming climate trends that should make us wary.
The WMO warns that our ecosystem continues to be racing towards a tipping point. According to the report, atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide are at the highest levels in the last 800,000 years. Globally each of the past ten years were individually the ten warmest years on record. Moreover, each of the past eight years has set a new record for ocean heat content. The largest three-year loss of glacier mass on record occurred in the past three years. As a result, the rate of sea level rise has doubled since satellite measurements began.
“Our planet is issuing more distress signals — but this report shows that limiting long-term global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius is still possible. Leaders must step up to make it happen — seizing the benefits of cheap, clean renewables for their people and economies – – with new National climate plans due this year, ” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.
The State of the Global Climate 2024 report underlined the massive economic and social upheavals from extreme weather and the long-term impacts of record ocean heat and sea-level rise.
The Cost of Rising Extreme Events
Extreme weather events in 2024 led to the highest number of new annual displacements since 2008, and destroyed homes, critical infrastructure, forests, farmland and biodiversity.
Tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and other hazards in 2024 led to the high domestic food prices drove worsening food crises in 18 countries globally by mid-2024, the highest number of new displacements recorded for the past 16 years, caused massive economic losses.
Tropical cyclones were responsible for many of the highest-impact events of 2024. These included Typhoon Yagi in Viet Nam, the Philippines and southern China, hurricanes Helene and Milton in the United States, and tropical cyclone Chido, which caused casualties and economic losses in the French Indian Ocean island of Mayotte, Mozambique and Malawi.
More International Cooperation is Needed
At a time when the USA, which traditionally has been the most important financial backer of international multilateral initiatives such as the UN and its agencies, the WMO notes that investment in weather, water and climate services is more important than ever to meet the challenges and build safer, more resilient communities, she stressed.
“In response, WMO and the global community are intensifying efforts to strengthen early warning systems and climate services to help decision-makers and society at large be more resilient to extreme weather and climate. We are making progress but need to go further and need to go faster. Only half of all countries worldwide have adequate early warning systems. This must change,” Saulo concludes.
