Stockholm (NordSIP) – According to reports from a recent meeting of EU environment ministers in Warsaw, Finland and Denmark are among the member states resisting attempts to weaken the European Union’s climate target of a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2040 relative to 1990 levels. The target was proposed in February 2024 and is a core component of the bloc’s ambition to reach climate neutrality by 2050.
The EU’s net-zero pathway involves a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, with the proposed 2040 target intended as a key stepping stone towards 2050. Finland, Denmark, Slovenia, and the Netherlands remain convinced that the goal is achievable and necessary. The 2050 climate neutrality objective is legally binding and sits at the heart of the European Green Deal. The 2040 target was set for formal approval in March 2025, but has been delayed due to the level of dissent among member states.
Although the long-term goal is not yet being questioned, some countries believe that the rate of GHG reduction should be reconsidered due to current geopolitical developments. The EU climate action debate has long featured tensions between wealthier nations and those with economies still reliant on heavy industries and legacy coal power. The economic uncertainty caused by the US administration’s recent tariffs on international trade has amplified calls for the 2040 target to be lowered by at least 10% or softened by the inclusion of carbon credits or carbon capture.
Calls to move the goalposts
Among the advocates of a target reduction based on the future contribution of low-carbon or carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS) is Italian Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Frattin. He described future technologies as potentially ‘more efficient and less costly’ while pushing for a 2040 target of 80% or 85%. The Czech Republic also opposes the 90% target due to its potential impact on its heavy industry. The European People’s Party (EPP), which is the largest political group in the EU, has also expressed concerns over the higher target. While it is still considering its final stance, the right-wing group believes an ‘over-ambitious’ target could jeopardise European industries.
The potential acceptance by the EU commission of CCUS or carbon credits as a means of softening the 2040 target would be highly controversial. The carbon credit markets have been beset by instances of double-counting, sub-standard methodologies, and fraud in recent years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also cautioned against the over-reliance on untested CCUS technologies, which are far from having proven their economic viability at scale.
