Stockholm (NordSIP) – In our lack of interest for the impact we have on our environment, we have continued to push our planet beyond its limits. The Global Footprint network notes that it took all of seven months to reach Earth Overshoot day in 2024. Even the much-lauded Nordic countries have already had their Country Overshoot day for 2025 at this stage. In parallel, a 2023 study showed that we have already exceed six of the nine “planetary boundaries”, which define the safe operating space for humanity within planet earth.
However, there may be light at the end of this bleak tunnel. A new study published in the journal Nature and co-authored by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) notes that a path is available through which humanity may still be able to stall the deterioration of the Earth’s systems.
A Hopeful Way Forward
The research team models a scenario that supplements ambitious climate policy with additional measures: a shift to a low-meat diet (the so-called EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet), halving food waste, and efficient use of water and nutrients. If we were able to follow this sustainable transition path, the article argues that not only would we be able to stop the deterioration of the planet, it would also be possible to return the earth’s systems to their 2015 level by 2050 and continue to recover in the second half of the century.
“Human civilisation has reached a critical juncture, and using a novel methodology, we show how it can continue to develop without ruining its natural foundations,” says PIK Director Johan Rockström, co-author of the study. “This is the most comprehensive coupling so far of the framework of planetary boundaries, which has originally been geared towards taking stock of the current situation, to data from model-based future scenarios. It results in a valuable navigation system for policymakers. We can clearly quantify the danger of business as usual, while showing that ambitious change pays off.” Rockström played a leading role in developing the planetary boundaries concept in 2009.
Still in Need of Better Policies
The new study indicates a continuous deterioration until 2100 for almost all categories – with the exception of the stratospheric ozone layer and air pollution – for a business-as-usual scenario without any additional policy measures. By 2050, climate and nitrogen pressures will already be well into the high-risk range. What’s more, ambitious climate policies aimed at limiting global heating to a maximum of 1.5°C will not be enough, on their own, to get us out of the high-risk range across the board by the end of the century.
“But even in this scenario, planetary boundaries will still be exceeded in 2100,” emphasises lead author Detlef van Vuuren, “namely for the climate, the phosphorus and nitrogen cycles, and the integrity of the biosphere. The search for even better policy measures therefore remains on the agenda. And to assess what they can achieve, our study provides a viable scientific approach,” van Vuuren concludes.
