Stockholm (NordSIP) – Based on an impact assessment focusing on possible pathways to reach the EU’s goal of climate neutrality by 2050, the European Commission published a 90% net greenhouse gas emissions emission reduction recommendation by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. According to the EU executive, this recommendation is in line with the advice of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) and the EU’s commitments under the Paris Agreement.
The Political Context
The recommendation takes place in a dual context. On the one hand, the 2021 European Climate Law required that the European Commission propose a climate target for 2040 within six months of the first Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement, which took place in December 2023. On the other hand, the proposal is meant to be the starting point of a public discussion with stakeholders ahead of legislative proposals to be made by the Commission after the European Parliament elections, which are due to take place at the start of June 2024.
If the 2040 climate target is adopted by the EU executive that will form the next Commission after the EU Parliament elections, it will be the basis for the EU’s new Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement, which needs to be communicated to the UNFCCC in 2025.
The European Climate Law, which entered into force in July 2021, enshrines in legislation the EU’s commitment to reach climate neutrality by 2050 and the intermediate target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. The ‘Fit for 55′ legislative package is meant to facilitate the delivery of the 2030 targets.
2050 Net GHG Neutrality According to the European Commission
The relevant European Commissioners provided some context for this recommendation. Executive Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič and Commissioners Kadri Simson and Wopke Hoekstra, noted that the recommendation “comes at a crucial moment in the debate around the future path of Europe’s green transition. The essence of the debate across many countries is how to decarbonise our economy to achieve climate neutrality, while keeping our businesses globally competitive and creating stable, future-proof, highly-paid jobs here, in Europe. The risk of deindustrialisation and social tension is very real. For us, Europe’s industrial leadership and socially just, inclusive green transition are not only two sides of the same coin, but are imperatives.”
The Commission also highlighted the changes it deems necessary to facilitate this transition, specifically considering the issues of carbon pricing, the energy sector and carbon capture and storage.
“Carbon pricing and access to finance are also critical for the delivery of emission reduction targets by European industry. The Commission will set up a dedicated taskforce to develop a global approach to carbon pricing and carbon markets. Europe will also need to mobilise the right mix of private and public sector investment to make our economy both sustainable and competitive. A European approach on finance will be needed in the coming years, in close cooperation with Member States.” The European Commission pointed to the ongoing update of the draft National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) as a key element in monitoring progress,” the EU executive said.
According to the European Commission, “the energy sector is projected to achieve full decarbonisation shortly after 2040, based on all zero and low carbon energy solutions, including renewables, nuclear, energy efficiency, storage, CCS, CCU, carbon removals, geothermal and hydro.” On the controversial topic of nuclear energy, the Commission pointed to its concomitant launch of the Industrial Alliance on Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). SMRs are defined as small nuclear reactors with a maximum output of 300 Megawatt electric (MWe) and can produce 7 200 000 kWh per day, slightly less than a third of the capacities of large nuclear reactors.
Moreover, the Commission argues that the recommended target will require not just emissions reductions but also carbon removals, via the deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies. “The EU’s Industrial Carbon Management strategy will support the development of CO2 supply chains and the required CO2 transport infrastructure. Carbon capture should be targeted to hard-to-abate sectors where alternatives are less economically viable. Carbon removals will also be needed to generate negative emissions after 2050,” the European Commission argues.
