Stockholm (NordSIP) – On January 10th, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced that 2024 was the warmest year on record globally, and the first calendar year that the average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above its pre-industrial level. This is an extremely significant development for climate change policy and represents an earlier-than-expected failure of one of the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, to and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
“All of the internationally produced global temperature datasets show that 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850. Humanity is in charge of its own destiny but how we respond to the climate challenge should be based on evidence. The future is in our hands – swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate,” says Carlo Buontempo, Director of the C3S.
C3S is implemented on behalf of the European Commission by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), whose scientists have been monitoring key climate indicators, and documenting unprecedented daily, monthly, and annual temperature records over 2024.
An Ongoing Trend
Each of the past 10 years (2015–2024) was one of the 10 warmest years on record. The monthly global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for 11 months of the year. Going back further, all months since July 2023, except for July 2024, have exceeded the 1.5°C level. A new record high for daily global average temperature was reached on 22 July 2024, at 17.16°C.
C3S argues that the drivers of last year’s record temperatures are the same as for the previous years. “Human-induced climate change remains the primary driver of extreme air and sea surface temperatures; while other factors, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), also contributed to the unusual temperatures observed during the year,” the European agency says.
Most Anomalous: Europe and Northern America
According to C3S, 2024 was the warmest year for all continental regions, except Antarctica and Australasia, as well as for sizeable parts of the ocean, particularly the North Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean. Moreover, in 2024, the annual average sea surface temperature (SST) over the extra-polar ocean reached a record high of 20.87°C, 0.51°C above the 1991–2020 average.
The decomposition of climate anomalies across the world shows that although the trend of excess temperatures was pervasive across the globe the average hides a degree of concentration of high temperature anomalies in Central Europe, the American Northeast, the Magreb, Central Africa, Northern Siberia, the Pacific Ocean and at the Poles.
“Each year in the last decade is one of the ten warmest on record. We are now teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5ºC level defined in the Paris Agreement and the average of the last two years is already above this level. These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapour levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people,” Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate, ECMWF, adds.
Europe stands out as one of the regions worst affected by climate change, with temperatures vastly exceeding the already problematic global average. 2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, with an average temperature of 10.69°C, 1.47°C above the average for the 1991-2020 reference period, and 0.28°C warmer than the previous record set in 2020. Spring and summer were the warmest on record for Europe, with the average temperature for spring (March-May) 1.50°C higher than the 1991-2020 seasonal average and the average temperature for summer (June–August) 1.54°C above the 1991-2020 seasonal average.
“The Global Climate Highlights is a vital tool for supporting international climate adaptation efforts. We are grateful for the European Commission’s continued trust towards ECMWF as an intergovernmental scientific organisation and for the dedication of our staff and collaborators, whose work makes this service possible. For 50 years, ECMWF’s leadership in meteorology with real-time data assimilation, operational expertise and the world’s largest meteorological historical database has been essential to ensuring global preparedness for weather-related challenges. All of this is achieved together with our Member States and their National Meteorological Services,” Florence Rabier, ECMWF Director-General, comments.
Temperature Increases Lead to Extreme Weather Events
C3S reiterates its warning that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the main driver of temperature increases and that these temperature anomalies contribute to the increased incidence of extreme weather events, such as storms, hurricanes, cyclones, floods, heatwaves and droughts. “The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events pose a significant risk to the livelihoods of people across the globe,” C3S warns.
According to C3S, an increase in air moisture raises the potential for extreme rainfall events, which combined with high sea surface temperatures can also contribute to the development of major storms, including tropical cyclones. “The total amount of water vapour in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2024, at about 5% above the 1991–2020 average — significantly higher than in 2023,” C3S explains.
In 2024, much of the globe experienced more days than average with at least ‘strong heat stress’. Some regions also saw more days than average with ‘extreme heat stress’, at which level it is imperative to take action to avoid heat stroke. High temperatures can lead to situations where the body is under stress from overheating.
“This report shows the critical value of our monitoring activities. In 2024, atmospheric GHG reached the highest annual levels ever recorded in the atmosphere, according to C3S and CAMS data. Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2024 were 2.9 ppm higher than in 2023 and methane concentrations were 3 ppb higher. This increase has brought the annual estimate of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to 422 ppm, and of methane to 1897 ppb. Our data points clearly to a steady global increase of greenhouse gas emissions and these remain the main agent of climate change,” Laurence Rouil, Director of CAMS at ECMWF concludes.
