The Dog Ate my NDC

We have all been there. The deadline for your annual tax return is looming large, but you are busy pairing all your loose socks. This procrastination could involve alphabetising your spice jar collection, teaching yourself origami, or starting to write that novel – anything but the task in hand.

Sadly, this seems to be the modus operandi of 95% of the signatories of the Paris Climate Agreement. Instead of a tax return, they were required to submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by 10 February 2025. These government sanctioned emissions reduction plans should ideally all combine to provide a clear pathway towards keeping global warming below 2-degrees at worst, and 1.5 degrees at best. Initial NDC drafts from 2015 and 2021 were to be updated following the ‘global stocktake’ carried out in 2023 at COP28 in Dubai.

The global stocktake, a de facto mid-term school report, was distinctly mediocre. A C+ at best, to judge by the teacher’s red pen comments on the front page. The teacher, a.k.a. the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said of the results: “The first global stocktake outcome recognised that progress has been made towards the Paris Agreement goals, reaching near-universal climate action. The outcome also tells us that these efforts are, however, insufficient and that the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. The world has a narrowing window of opportunity to get back on track.”

The 195 parties to the Paris Agreement were therefore expected to up their game and submit top-notch NDCs ahead of this year’s COP30 in Brazil. However, according to environmental NGO Carbon Brief, just 13 countries published their NDCs by this month’s deadline. Those procrastinators that are still learning the banjo/filing their nails/extending their Duolingo streak jointly represent 83% of global emissions. Their NDCs are therefore fairly important to the planet.

So who are the 13 teacher’s pets that met the deadline? They are quite a motley crew, consisting of the US, UK, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), New Zealand, Switzerland, Uruguay, Andorra, Ecuador, Saint Lucia, the Marshall Islands, Singapore and Zimbabwe. Clearly some of these countries are very small, have contributed very few historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and in some cases stand to suffer the effects of climate change more than most. As far as the other larger nations are concerned, their submissions are very much a mixed bag.

The US NDC was submitted by the Biden administration, so must now be treated as a work of fiction. According to the research group Climate Action Tracker, the US submission was also one of several that met the deadline but failed to include the criteria needed for a 1.5-degree pathway. Joining the US on the naughty step in that respect are Brazil, the UAE, and Switzerland. Top-of-the-class is the UK with a genuine 1.5-degree compatible NDC, although the analysis shows the Brits could loosen their purse strings and put more money towards meeting the nation’s fair share of funding climate mitigation in vulnerable nations.

What excuses have the 182 laggards given for missing the deadline? “The dog ate my NDC” perhaps? “We wrote a great one, but someone unplugged the computer before we could save it” or “We forgot it on the bus on the way here” might also work at a stretch. European Union nations appeared to blame their own bureaucracy for the delay, while according to Carbon Brief Indian officials said they were simply in no hurry, and China said we could all try to guess when they plan to release their NDC, they are not telling.

Meanwhile, 2024 was officially declared the warmest year since records began, and storms, droughts, wildfires, and floods continue unabated. While a bit of procrastination here and there is a common human trait, deadline surfing by nation states in a climate crisis is definitely not cool. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, the saying goes, but the road to COP30 needs to built on solid, credible, fully funded NDCs or it is doomed to fail.

We have all been there. The deadline for your annual tax return is looming large, but you are busy pairing all your loose socks. This procrastination could involve alphabetising your spice jar collection, teaching yourself origami, or starting to write that novel – anything but the task in hand.

Sadly, this seems to be the modus operandi of 95% of the signatories of the Paris Climate Agreement. Instead of a tax return, they were required to submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by 10 February 2025. These government sanctioned emissions reduction plans should ideally all combine to provide a clear pathway towards keeping global warming below 2-degrees at worst, and 1.5 degrees at best. Initial NDC drafts from 2015 and 2021 were to be updated following the ‘global stocktake’ carried out in 2023 at COP28 in Dubai.

The global stocktake, a de facto mid-term school report, was distinctly mediocre. A C+ at best, to judge by the teacher’s red pen comments on the front page. The teacher, a.k.a. the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said of the results: “The first global stocktake outcome recognised that progress has been made towards the Paris Agreement goals, reaching near-universal climate action. The outcome also tells us that these efforts are, however, insufficient and that the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. The world has a narrowing window of opportunity to get back on track.”

The 195 parties to the Paris Agreement were therefore expected to up their game and submit top-notch NDCs ahead of this year’s COP30 in Brazil. However, according to environmental NGO Carbon Brief, just 13 countries published their NDCs by this month’s deadline. Those procrastinators that are still learning the banjo/filing their nails/extending their Duolingo streak jointly represent 83% of global emissions. Their NDCs are therefore fairly important to the planet.

So who are the 13 teacher’s pets that met the deadline? They are quite a motley crew, consisting of the US, UK, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), New Zealand, Switzerland, Uruguay, Andorra, Ecuador, Saint Lucia, the Marshall Islands, Singapore and Zimbabwe. Clearly some of these countries are very small, have contributed very few historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and in some cases stand to suffer the effects of climate change more than most. As far as the other larger nations are concerned, their submissions are very much a mixed bag.

The US NDC was submitted by the Biden administration, so must now be treated as a work of fiction. According to the research group Climate Action Tracker, the US submission was also one of several that met the deadline but failed to include the criteria needed for a 1.5-degree pathway. Joining the US on the naughty step in that respect are Brazil, the UAE, and Switzerland. Top-of-the-class is the UK with a genuine 1.5-degree compatible NDC, although the analysis shows the Brits could loosen their purse strings and put more money towards meeting the nation’s fair share of funding climate mitigation in vulnerable nations.

What excuses have the 182 laggards given for missing the deadline? “The dog ate my NDC” perhaps? “We wrote a great one, but someone unplugged the computer before we could save it” or “We forgot it on the bus on the way here” might also work at a stretch. European Union nations appeared to blame their own bureaucracy for the delay, while according to Carbon Brief Indian officials said they were simply in no hurry, and China said we could all try to guess when they plan to release their NDC, they are not telling.

Meanwhile, 2024 was officially declared the warmest year since records began, and storms, droughts, wildfires, and floods continue unabated. While a bit of procrastination here and there is a common human trait, deadline surfing by nation states in a climate crisis is definitely not cool. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, the saying goes, but the road to COP30 needs to built on solid, credible, fully funded NDCs or it is doomed to fail.